What
CPAs need to do to survive
the automation revolution
While computers take over routine tasks, accountants should
focus on strategy and
finding value.
By Chris Sheedy
June 26, 2017
As
automation becomes a bigger and bigger buzzword across business sectors, many
workers—especially CPAs—are wondering what's in store for their jobs. The
uncertain situation is additionally stressful because it's hard to separate facts about the future of
automation's impact from (science) fiction.
"Of course many attempt to predict the impact on jobs.
You can come up with frameworks using dimensions of cognitive and physical
complexity of jobs, productivity increases offered by robotics and
artificial intelligence [AI], and technology adoption rates—but these are estimates and predictions at best"
for jobs that might be
replaced by automation, said Alanna Klassen Jamjoum, director of digital
transformation at global management consulting firm A.T. Kearney.
A lot of research reflects this combination
of anxiety and confusion.
Just one example: A 2016 study by the Pew Research Center said that 65% of
Americans expect that within 50 years robots will be doing much of the work now
done by humans—but 80% believe it will happen to other people's jobs, not their
own.
"Many organizations have tried to measure the number
or percentage of jobs that will be taken by tech. I have seen results ranging from 14% of jobs to 50%,
and few can adequately predict
what jobs might be created," Jamjoum said. "There is no simple
answer. Technology, and people, are unpredictable." However,
history has shown us that while jobs do disappear with the advent of new
technology, new jobs sprout up with them.
CPAs
at risk
Even so, experts around the world have been
busy trying to predict
which jobs will be hit the hardest. Shelly Palmer, CEO of The Palmer Group, in
an editorial for CNBC said machine learning algorithms running on purpose-built
computers pose a clear risk to several specific jobs and industries. His
top five hit list is:
l Middle management.
l Commodity salespeople (ad sales, office supplies, etc.).
l Report writers, journalists, and announcers.
l Accountants and bookkeepers.
l Doctors.
【補充】
The 5
jobs robots will take first
4 – Accountants & Bookkeepers
Data processing probably created more jobs than it eliminated, but machine learning–based accountants and
bookkeepers will be so much better than their human counterparts, you're
going to want to use the machines. Robo-accounting is in its infancy, but it's
awesome at dealing with accounts payable and receivable, inventory control,
auditing and several other accounting functions that humans used to be needed
to do. Big Four auditing
is in for a big shake-up, very soon.
Accountants—specifically
accounting clerks and bookkeepers—appeared at No. 1 in a 2015 PwC
study of which jobs are most at risk from automation in the next 20 years. The
rationale: Computer learning systems or robotics will be able to perform simple and routine tasks faster and more accurately.
Accountants were just ahead of checkout operators and cashiers, office
administration staff, and financial and insurance administration workers on
that list.
"What you have in our industry is a
big spectrum that is really dealing with transaction recording. There is no
question that that will become more and more automated in a very short period
of time," said Dwayne Bragonier, CITP, a chartered professional accountant
and founder of BAI Bragonier & Associates Inc. "A big chunk of the
manpower required to record
a transaction or to accumulate transactions into an aggregate will, of course,
be automated."
Know
your role
But
that's only a small part of
the picture, Bragonier said, and it ignores the many opportunities
offered by technology. "The work that will be automated
is not a CPA's responsibility. That work was simply something
that needed to be done for CPAs to start their job."
What is a CPA's job? Bragonier said the key tasks center on providing and
interpreting "dashboards" or reports that deal with value. The real job is rising above the
details and seeing meaning in
information the company holds. When a cellphone manufacturer releases a new
smartphone, what does that mean for the value of remaining stocks of the
previous version, for instance?
"There's no magic formula for
that," Bragonier said. "There are a whole bunch of parameters that
are, by their very nature, gray areas. They require a professional to figure them out because
they can't be coded."
In a world of seemingly infinite data,
Bragonier said, new concepts of value will need to be defined by accountants.
"There are huge opportunities there," he said, noting that automating
routine tasks could free up professionals to properly identify issues.
No matter what happens, it's clear that
senior accountants, finance staff, and CFOs will have their hands full
keeping up with the changes. Staffing costs are likely to plummet as technology
takes over, but technology costs themselves, and the cost of experts to manage
that technology, will rise dramatically. The changes will cut across job
descriptions and industries.
But it's not all doom and gloom. In the United States, farming jobs made up
40% of the workforce in 1900, but by 2000 that share had dropped to 2%.
Similarly, 25% of jobs in 1950 were in the manufacturing sector, but by 2010
manufacturing was less than 10% of the workforce, according to a McKinsey
Global Institute report on automation and employment. In both cases, new jobs,
sometimes in new industries, eventually offset the losses. Of course, there
is an important caveat to consider: The new jobs that were created were not
always as desirable to some workers as the old ones were.
Our imaginations are simply not strong
enough to know what types of jobs might be created in the future, said Tim
Fung, CEO and co-founder of Airtasker, an online marketplace for people and
businesses to outsource tasks. "But just think about autonomous cars,
which are on the verge of becoming reality, and the industry that is already
being created around them," he said. "That opens up a gamut of new
jobs."
The accounting profession is no different.
Already businesses in accounting are shifting their focus from pure accounting
work to business consulting
capabilities. Software that automates processes already has taken over
many back-office functions in finance, but accountants shifting to business
consulting are learning that there is great demand for accountants who can add value to a client business.
The
dangers of waiting too long
Technology futurist Rick Richardson,
CPA/CITP, CGMA, managing partner of Richardson Media & Technologies, said a
lot of what shapes an accounting firm's level of technological advancement is
the current needs of their
clients—or at least the needs their clients voice. If their clients are not talking about
automation and the cloud, technology might not be a firm's priority. This is
dangerous, Richardson said, because as we head over the technological tipping
point, certain firms are going to be far better prepared.
"Auditing is going to end up being
done by about 50 to 100 firms," Richardson predicted. "Those firms are smartly building
software and systems as we speak to start auditing in this new era."
How can individuals and firms prepare? When
Richardson speaks at conferences, he provides a massive list of books to read
and courses and webinars to attend to help people stay informed on current
issues like data, the internet of things, and blockchain.
"You
need to understand this new world like you understand accounting," he
said. That new world is data
quality, data analytics, business intelligence, data modeling, and data
governance.
According to Richardson, CPAs will be
responsible for asking questions such as these: Who owns it? How do you get it?
How good is it? Where is it kept? How secure is it? How do we analyze it? How
can we take that analysis and turn it into intelligence that provides us with better business
decisions?
"There are very fundamental changes
that people need to understand
are happening, and they need to begin the process," he said. "There
is a lot of training
that most professionals are going to have to go through to get themselves to
the level where they really are comfortable to play in this space."
And don't forget that with every wave of
innovation and technology, a "cottage industry of jobs" will be
created, Klassen Jamjoum said. Classic examples abound: The rise of automobiles
may have put stables out of business, but it created a need for auto repair
shops, gas stations, and the like.
And
while technology has an advantage over humans in many ways, there are other elements of financial
services that it can't replace. For example: A 2017 study from
consulting firm Accenture found that even with the advent of robo-advisers, 68%
of wealthy clients preferred having
access to both a human
adviser and a robo-adviser instead of just one of those.
"In a future where we are increasingly
surrounded by AI, we will crave human interaction even more," Klassen
Jamjoum points out. "And many jobs will be augmented by AI, meaning people can achieve things
they never thought possible. Technology should empower, not take away."
Chris Sheedy is a freelance writer based in
Canberra, Australia. To comment on this article, contact Chris Baysden, senior
manager of newsletters at the AICPA.
